Volume List  / Volume 4 (3)

Article

RISK FACTORS AFFECTING FATAL VERSUS NON-FATAL ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS: THE CASE OF KARS PROVINCE, TURKEY

DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2014.4(3).07


4 / 3 / 339-351 Pages

Author(s)

Ali Kemal Çelik - Atatürk University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Quantitative Methods, 25240, Erzurum, Turkey -

Ötüken Senger - Kafkas University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Quantitative Methods, 36100, Kars, Turkey -


Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine risk factors affecting the fatal versus non-fatal accidents in a rural region of Turkey, during 2008-2012, considering variables associated with the individual, the environment, and the motor vehicle. A retrospective study was conducted by obtaining the data from the traffic police road accident reports between 2008 and 2012. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the data and critical factors that contributed significantly to fatal versus non-fatal traffic accidents. The results revealed that the driver’s age (OR = 1.09; 90% CI = 1.05 – 1.14), clear weather (OR = 0.11; 90% CI = 0.02 – 0.65), winter season (OR = 0.16; 90% CI = 0.03 – 0.75), straight (OR = 0.22; 90% CI = 0.05 – 0.91) or slight road curve/bend (OR = 0.17; 90% CI = 0.04 – 0.83), the driver’s education (OR = 0.18; 90% CI = 0.04 – 0.85) and the purpose of the vehicle (OR = 0.20; 90% CI = 0.04 – 0.94) were the significant factors affecting road traffic accidents over the sample period.


Download Article

Number of downloads: 1068


Acknowledgements:

The authors would like to thank Kars Provincial Traffic Police Department, especially Traffic Services Branch and Regional Traffic Control Branch Offices’ chief superintendents and all the staff for their supports, special interests, and courtesy in charge of collecting nonpersonal ized data and advice on data management that made this study possible.


References:

Abdel-Aty, M.A.; Chen, C.L.; Schott, J.R. 1998. An assessment of the effect of driver age on traffic accident involvement using log-linear models, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(98)00038-4, 30(6): 851-861.

 

Agresti, A. 1996. An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. USA. 400 p.

 

Agresti, A. 2002. Categorical Data Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. USA. 744 p.

 

Alam, B.M.; Spainhour, L.K. 2009. Contributing factors for young at fault drivers in fatal traffic crashes in Florida, Journal of Transportation Safety & Security. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19439960902735444, 1(2): 152-168.

 

Al-Ghamdi, A.S. 2002. Using logistic regression to estimate the influence of accident factors on accident severity, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00073-2, 34(6): 729-741.

 

Arranz, J.M.; Gil, A.I. 2009. Traffic accidents, deaths and alcohol consumption, Applied Economics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222652, 41(20): 2583-2595.

 

Awadzi, K.D.; Classen, S.; Hall, A.; Duncan, R.P.; Garvan, C.W. 2008. Predictors of injury among younger and older adults in fatal motor vehicle crashes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2008.07.010, 40(6): 1804-1810.

 

Barengo, N.C.; Mkamba, S.M.; Mshana, M.; Miettola, J. 2006. Road traffic accidents in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania during 1999 and 2001, International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15660970500036713, 13(1): 52-54.

 

Bener, A.; Crundall, D. 2008. Role of gender and driver behaviour in road traffic crashes, International Journal of Crashworthiness. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13588260801942684, 13(3): 331-336.

 

Bombom, L.S.; Edino, M.O. 2009. Road profiling of traffic accidents in Jos, Nigeria, 1995-1999, International Journal of Injury Control and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300903024186, 16(3): 169-174.

 

Carson, J.; Mannering, F. 2001. The effect of ice warning signs on ice-accident frequencies and severities, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(00)00020-8, 33(1): 99-109.

 

Chen, F.; Chen, S. 2011. Injury severities of truck drivers in single- and multi-vehicle accidents on rural highways, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.026, 43(5): 1677-1688.

 

Chipman, M.L. 1995. Risk factors for injury: Similarities and differences for traffic crashes and other causes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(95)00013-P, 27(5): 699-706.

 

Cooper, P.J. 1990. Differences in accident characteristics among elderly drivers and between elderly and middleaged drivers, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(90)90044-L, 22(5): 499-508.

 

Cooper, P.J.; Salzberg, P. 1993. Safety restraint usage in fatal motor vehicle crashes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(93)90097-G, 25(1): 67-75.

 

Cox, D.R. 1970. Analysis of Binary Data. Chapman & Hall Ltd. UK. 142 p.

 

Cummings, P.; Rivara, F.P.; Olson, C.M.; Smith, K.M. 2006. Changes in traffic crash mortality rates attributed to use of alcohol, or lack of a seat-belt, air bag, motorcycle helmet, or bicycle helmet, United States, 1982-2001, Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/ip.2005.010975, 12(3): 148-154.

 

De Boni, R.; Cruz, O.G.; Weber, E.; Hasenack, H.; Lucatelli, L.; Duarte, P.; Gracie, R.; Pechansky, F.; Bastos, F.I. 2013. Traffic crashes and alcohol outlets in a Brazilian state capital, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2012.690164, 14(1): 86-91.

 

Drucker, C.; Gerberich, S.G.; Manser, M.P.; Alexander, B.H.; Church, T.R.; Dyan, A.D.; Becic, E. 2013. Factors associated with civilian drivers involved in crashes with emergency vehicles, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.02.035, 55: 116-123.

 

Elvik, R.; Fridstrøm, L.; Kaminska, J.; Meyer, S.F. 2013. Effects on accidents of changes in the use of studded tyres in major cities in Norway: A long-term investigation, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.02.004, 54: 15-25.

 

Glendon, A.I.; Dorn, L.; Davies, D.R.; Matthews, G.; Taylor, R.G. 1996. Age and gender differences in perceived accident likelihood and driver competences, Risk Analysis. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb00826.x, 16(6): 755-762.

 

Governor of Kars. 2013. Geographical framework of Kars. Available from Internet: http://www.kars.gov.tr/kars_cografi_yapi.html.

 

Hanushek, E.A.; Jackson, J.E. 1977. Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, Inc. USA. 374 p.

 

Hijar, M.; Carrillo, C.; Flores, M.; Anaya, R.; Lopez, V. 2000. Risk factors in highway accidents: A case control study, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00116-5, 32(5): 703-709.

 

Holubowycz, O.T.; Kloeden, C.N.; McLean, A.J. 1994. Age, sex, and blood alcohol concentration of killed and injured drivers, riders, and passengers, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(94)90039-6, 26(4): 483-492.

 

Hosmer, D.W.; Lemeshow, S. 2000. Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. USA. 375 p.

 

Islam, S.; Mannering, F. 2006. Driver aging and its effect on male and female single-vehicle accident injuries: Some additional evidence, Journal of Safety Research. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2006.04.003, 37(3): 267-276.

 

Jiang, X.; Yan, X.; Huang, B.; Richards, S.H. 2011. Influence of curbs on traffic crash frequency on highspeed roadways, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2011.578285, 12(4): 412-421.

 

Jones, A.P.; Jørgensen, S.H. 2003. The use of multilevel models for the prediction of road accident outcomes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00086-0, 35(1): 59-69.

 

Kaplan, S.; Prato, C.G. 2012. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: A mixed logit model approach, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2011.654015, 13(3): 315-326.

 

Karlaftis, M.G.; Golias, I. 2002. Effects of road geometry and traffic volumes on rural roadway accident rates, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00033-1, 34(3): 357-365.

 

Kartal, M.; Kutlar, A.; Begen, A. 2011. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors affecting traffic accidents: Study of Sivas, Kayseri and Yozgat (trans. from Turkish), The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7(2): 45-68.

 

Kim, K.; Nitz, L.; Richardson, J.; Li, L. 1995. Personal and behavioral predictors of automobile crash and injury severity, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(95)00001-G, 27(4): 469-481.

 

Kim, J.K.; Kim, S.; Ulfarsson, G.F.; Porello, L.A. 2007. Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2006.07.002, 39(2): 238-251.

 

Laapotti, S.; Keskinen, E. 1998. Differences in fatal loss-of-control accidents between young male and female drivers, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(97)00121-8, 30(4): 435-442.

 

Lee, J.; Mannering, F. 2002. Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00009-4, 34(2): 149-161.

 

Long, S. 1997. Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables. SAGE Publications. UK. 297 p.

 

Majdzadeh, R.; Khalagi, K.; Naraghi, K.; Motevalian, A.; Eshraghian, M.R. 2008. Determinants of traffic injuries in drivers and motorcyclists involved in an accident, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.03.019, 40(1): 17-23.

 

Mamčic, S.; Sivilevičius, H. 2013. The analysis of traffic accidents on Lithuanian regional gravel roads, Transport. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2013.782894, 28(1): 108-115.

 

Martin, J.; Laumon, B. 2005. Tire blow-outs and motorway accidents, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389580490510174, 6(1): 53-55.

 

Massie, D.L.; Campbell, K.L.; Williams, A.F. 1995. Traffic accident involvement rates by driver age and gender, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(94)00050-V, 27(1): 73-87.

 

Pulugurtha, S.S.; Bhatt, J. 2010. Evaluating the role of weaving section characteristics and traffic on crashes in weaving areas, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389580903370039, 11(1): 104-113.

 

Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways. 2013. Road Network of 18th Regional Directorate. Available from Internet: http://www.kgm.gov.tr.

 

Reynaud, M.; Le Breton, P.; Gilot, B.; Vervialle, F.; Falissard, B. 2002. Alcohol is the main factor in excess traffic accident fatalities in France, Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-0277.2002.tb02490.x, 26(12): 1833-1839.

 

Shankar, V.; Mannering, F.; Barfield, W. 1995. Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(94)00078-Z, 27(3): 371-389.

 

Shon, S.Y.; Shin, H. 2001. Pattern recognition for road traffic accident severity in Korea, Ergonomics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00140130120928, 44(1): 107-117.

 

Šliupas, T. 2009. The impact of road parameters and the surrounding area on traffic accidents, Transport. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1648-4142.2009.24.42-47, 24(1): 42-47.

 

Stine, R.A. 1995. Graphical interpretation of variance inflation factors, The American Statistician. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1995.10476113, 49(1): 53-56.

 

Strandroth, J.; Rizzi, M.; Olai, M.; Lie, A.; Tingvall, C. 2012. The effects of studded tires on fatal crashes with passenger cars and the benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) in Swedish winter driving, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.11.005, 45: 50-60.

 

Sze, N.N.; Wong, S.C. 2007. Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury severity in traffic crashes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.03.017, 39(6): 1267-1278.

 

Tay, R.; Rifaat, R.M.; Chin, H.C. 2008. A logistic model of the effects of roadway, environmental, vehicle, crash and driver characteristics on hit-and-run crashes, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2008.02.003, 40(4): 1330-1336.

 

Turkish State Meteorological Service. 2013. Official Statistics of Provinces and Districts. Available from Internet: http://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?m=KARS.

 

Turkish Statistical Institute. 2012a. Traffic accident statistics (Road) 2011. Available from Internet: www.tuik.gov.tr/IcerikGetir.do?istab_id=70.

 

Turkish Statistical Institute. 2012b. Road motor vehicle statistics, News Bulletin, October 2012. Available from Internet: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=10965.

 

Turkish National Police. 2013a. Burden of the type of motor vehicles. Available from Internet: http://www.trafik.gov.tr/Sayfalar/Istatistikler/aracsurucu4.aspx.

 

Turkish National Police. 2013b. General Traffic Accident Statistics. Available from Internet: http://www.trafik.gov.tr/Sayfalar/Istatistikler/Genel-Kaza.aspx.

 

Turkish National Police. 2013c. Burden of the number of drivers with respect to provinces. Available from Internet: http://www.traf ik.gov.tr/Sayfalar/Istatistikler/aracSurucu1.aspx.

 

Ulfarsson, G.F.; Mannering, F.L. 2004. Differences in male and female injury severities in sport-utility vehicle, minivan, pickup and passenger car accidents, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00135-5, 36(2): 135-147.

 

World Health Organization. 2013a. Road traffic injuries. Fact Sheet N°358. Available from Internet: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/.

 

World Health Organization. 2013b. Global status report on road safety 2013: Supporting a decade of action, Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.

 

Yannis, G.; Papadimitrou, E.; Antoniou, C. 2008. Impact of enforcement on traffic accidents and fatalities: A multivariate multilevel analysis, Safety Science. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2007.01.014, 46(5): 738-750.

 

Yau, K.K.W. 2004. Risk factors affecting the severity of single vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00012-5, 36(3): 333-340.

 

Zhang, J.; Fraser, S.; Lindsay, J.; Clarke, K.; Mao, Y. 1998. Age-specific patterns of factors related to fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes: Focus on young and elderly drivers, Public Health. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.ph.1900485, 112(5): 289-295.

 

Zhang, J.; Lindsay, J.; Clarke, K.; Robbins, G.; Mao, Y. 2000. Factors affecting the severity of motor vehicle traffic crashes involving elderly drivers in Ontario, Accident Analysis & Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00039-1, 32(1): 117-125.

 

Zhou, J.; Zhao, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhu, S.; Zhou, J. 2005. Investigation on road traffic safety of the mountain areas in Southwest China based on Wulong county, Chongqing Municipality, Traffic Injury Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389580590931707, 6(2): 193-196.