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Article

DEVELOPMENT AND STATISTICAL VALIDATION OF A SIMPLIFIED LOGISTIC LAND USE CHANGE MODEL

DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2016.6(4).03


6 / 4 / 390-405 Pages

Author(s)

Tahmina Khan - Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA -

Michael Anderson - Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA -


Abstract

Landscapes are dynamic, and the driving forces towards the societal change are related to the population growth and the lifestyle becoming increasingly urban and more mobile. The efforts to understand patterns and driving forces of urban growth or expansion have been analyzed in previous and recent studies. There is no doubt that the demand for urban land and the pressure for sustainable development will increase in any Metropolitan Area in the near future. In this study, land use change models were derived with and without variables related to urban sprawl and compared based on their statistical significance. The main goal of this paper is to propose a simplified logistic model, tested in Huntsville, AL that can highlight the probability of land use change by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). Validation approach demonstrates the applications of measures of discrimination and calibration for a logistic regression model. This study can help to improve the understanding of patterns and determinants of urban growth and land expansion in Huntsville, AL. The model can be very useful to forecast the future probability of land use change and can be a substantial input in planning and decision-making process.


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