A METHOD OF ESTIMATING THE COSTS OF UNEXPECTED RUNWAY CLOSURES DUE TO ACCIDENTS AND INCIDENTS

Author(s)

Rob van Eekeren - Safe-runway GmbH, Route de Nendaz, Nendaz, VS, Switzerland -

Stephen Wright - Faculty of Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK -

Olja ÄŒokorilo - University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia -

Abstract

Accidents occur on or near runways. These result in damage to equipment and property, extra operational costs, temporarily loss of turnover and endanger human life’s. Specific mitigations to increase runway safety are taken since two decades. Specific action plans such the EAPPRE/EAPRRI do not express the mitigations and their safety benefits in costs saved. That precludes a cost effective approach to runway accident mitigations, which limits further runway safety enhancements. A cost effective method will not only be beneficial for aviation safety but also for aircraft operators and aerodrome operator’s competiveness and ultimately for the passengers. For a cost effective approach is insight in the world wide costs associated with all runway events needed. This has not been done so far. Our model enables a reasonable estimate of the costs resulting from unexpected runway closures due to accidents or incidents. The model uses 18 runway accident related variables and has a transparent structure of realistic assumptions. Data are gathered from open sources. The model is flexible enough to allow updating of input data and/or assumptions when better would become available. Break down in the various components of the costs to great extends is made possible, allowing insight and also prioritizing of future mitigations. The root causes and contributing factors leading to the runway accidents are not incorporated, the model focuses on the financial impact corrected for regional purchasing power. For 2016 are the costs associated with unexpected runway closures due to accidents or incidents estimated at 4.2 Billion Dollar, whereof the costs for aircraft operators are 2.4B$; aerodrome operators 0,16B$; Indirect Safety Costs 1.3B$ and the cost of Human injuries and fatalities 0,3 B$.