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Article

PREDICTION OF BUS TRAVEL TIME USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2015.5(4).06


5 / 4 / 410-424 Pages

Author(s)

Johar Amita - Centre for Transportation System, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, Uttarakhand, India -

Jain Sukhvir Singh - Centre for Transportation System, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, Uttarakhand, India -

Garg Pradeep Kumar - Centre for Transportation System, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, Uttarakhand, India -


Abstract

The objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) for development of bus travel time prediction model. The bus travel time prediction model was developed to give real time bus arrival information to the passenger and transit agencies for applying proactive strategies. For development of ANN model, dwell time, delays and distance between the bus stops was taken as input data. Arrivals/departure times, delays, average speed between the bus stop and distance between the bus stops were collected for two urban routes in Delhi. Model was developed, validated and tested using GPS (Global Positioning System) data collected from field study. Comparative study reveals that ANN model outperformed the regression model in terms of accuracy and robustness.


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Keywords:
travel time; artificial neural network; regression model; buses; prediction;


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