The goal of IJTTE is to broaden the knowledge of traffic and transport experts and academicians by promoting free access and provide valuable insight to transport related information, research and ideas. IJTTE will serve as a great resource for researchers and students across the globe.
Volume List  / Volume 3 (2)

Article

LOGIT MODEL OF MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES CONSIDERING PERSONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2013.3(2).06


3 / 2 / 173-184 Pages

Author(s)

Rosemary R. Seva - Human Factors and Ergonomics Center, Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila -

Glaiza Marie T. Flores - Human Factors and Ergonomics Center, Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila -

Maria Patricia T. Gotohio - Human Factors and Ergonomics Center, Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila -

Noel Gabriel C. Paras - Human Factors and Ergonomics Center, Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila -


Abstract

The study aims to determine significant personal and environmental variables in predicting motorcycle accidents in the Philippines, compare the results with findings in other countries, and propose possible government interventions. Data were gathered from 177 participants through the use of a survey in a licensing center in the largest city in Metro Manila. Logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of an accident from variables considered in the model. Three variables were found to be significant predictors of motorcycle accidents: age, driving behavior, and junction type. Younger drivers are more likely to be involved in accidents. The significance of age was unexpected because similar models found this to be insignificant. Driving behavior, specifically, committing violation predicts accident likelihood. Driving at t- and y-junctions also predicts motorcycle accidents. In the Philippines, a unique set of variables were found to predict motorcycle accidents. Although previous studies have established the effect of these variables to accident likelihood, the combination was unforeseen. Government agencies can focus on interventions directed at these three variables.


Download Article

Number of downloads: 4690

Keywords:
motorcycle accidents; personal variables; environmental variables; logistic regression;


References:

Abelgas, G. 2010. Motorcycle accidents on the rise. Available from Internet: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/metro-manila/02/18/10/motorcycleaccidents-rise.

 

Al-Ghamdi, A.S. 2002. Using logistic regression to estimate the influence of accident factors on accident severity, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00073-2, 34(6): 729-741.

 

Andrade, J. 2007. Motorcycle accidents have highest fatality rate – DOH, Philippine Daily Inquirer. September 20. Available from Internet: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/metro/view/20070920-89712/Motorcycle_accidents_have_highest_fatality_rate--DoH_.

 

Asian Development Bank. 2005a. Arrive alive: ASEAN commits to cutting road deaths. Manila, Philippines. 108 p.

 

Asian Development Bank. 2005b. ADB-ASEAN Regional Road Safety Program. Country Report: CR 3. Road Safety in Indonesia. Manila, Philippines. 27 p.

 

Asian Development Bank. 2005c. ADB–ASEAN Regional Road Safety Program. Country Report: CR 10. Road Safety in Vietnam. Manila, Philippines. 23 p.

 

Barsi, T.; Faegermann, C.; Larsen, B. 2002. Road Traffic Accidents with Two-Wheeled Motor Vehicles during a Five-Year Period in Odense, Denmark, Traffic Injury and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389580214621, 3(4): 283-287.

 

Chang, H.L.; Yeh, T.H. 2007. Motorcyclist accident involvement by age, gender, and risky behaviors in Taipei, Taiwan, Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2006.08.001, 10(2): 109-122.

 

Chin, H.C. 1989. Effect of Automatic Red-light Cameras on Red-running, Traffic Engineering Control, 30(4): 175-179.

 

Clarke, D.; Bartle, P.; Truman, W. 2004. In-depth study of motorcycle accidents. Department for Transport, London. 69 p.

 

Crundall, D.; Humphrey, K.; Clarke, D. 2008. Perception and appraisal of approaching motorcycles at junctions, Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2007.09.003, 11(3): 159-167.

 

Davey, J.; Wishart, D.; Freeman, J.; Watson, B. 2007. An application of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire in an Australian organisational fleet setting, Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2006.03.001, 10(1): 11-21.

 

De Leon, M.R.; Cal, P.; Sigua, R. 2005. Estimation of socio-economic cost of road accidents in Metro Manila, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 6(2005): 3183-3198.

 

DeMaris, A. 1992. Logit modeling: Practical applications. Sage Publications USA. 87 p.

 

Flores, G.M.; Gotohio, P.; Paras, N. 2011. Analysis of motorcycle accidents based on environmental and personal variables. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management.

 

Hair, J.F.; Black, B.; Babin, B.; Anderson, R.E.; Tatham, R.L. 2010. Multivariate Data Analysis. 7th ed. Prentice Hall USA. 116 p.

 

Haque, M.M.; Chin, H.C.; Debnath, A.K. 2012. An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models, Safety Science. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.09.015, 50(2): 352-362.

 

Hsu, T.P.; Sadullah, A.F.M.; Dao, N.X. Nguyen Xuan Dao. 2003. Taiwan: National Taiwan University. 137 p.

 

Huang, H.; Chin, H.; Haque, M.M. 2008. Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.04.002, 40(1): 45-54.

 

Indriastuti, A.K.; Sulistio, H. 2010. Influencing factors on motorcycle accident in urban area of Malang, Indonesia, International Journal of Academic Research, 2(5): 252-255.

 

Lajunen, T.; Parker, D.; Summala, H. 2004. The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire: a crosscultural study, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00152-5, 36(2): 231-238.

 

Lajunen, T.; Summala, H. 2003. Can we trust self-reports of driving? Effects of impression management on driver behaviour questionnaire responses, Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1369-8478(03)00008-1, 6(2): 97-107.

 

Libres, G.T.C.; Galvez, M.L.I.; Cordero, C.J.N. 2008. Analysis of Relationship between Driver Characteristic and Road Accidents along Commonwealth Avenue: Department of Civil Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman. 5 p.

 

Lum, K.M.; Wong, Y.D. 2003. Impacts of Red Light Camera on Violation Characteristics, Journal of Transport Engineering. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2003)129:6(648), 129(6): 648-656.

 

Majdzadeh, R.; Khalagi, K.; Naraghi, K.; Motevalian, A.; Eshraghian, M.R. 2008. Determinants of traffic injuries in drivers and motorcyclists involved in an accident, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.03.019, 40(1): 17-23.

 

Metro Manila Development Authority. 2009. Motorcycle Traffic Accidents. Metro Manila Development Authority, Metropolitan Safety Unit. 17 p.

 

Moskal, A.; Martin, J.L.; Laumon, B. 2012. Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.021, 49(2012): 5-11.

 

Pai, C.W.; Saleh, W. 2008. Modelling motorcyclist injury severity by various crash types at T-junctions in the UK, Safety Science. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2007.07.005, 46(8): 1234-1247.

 

Radin, U.R.S.; Mackay, M.G.; Hills, B.L. 1996. Modelling of conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents in Seremban and Shah Alam, Malaysia, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 28(3): 325-332.

 

Reason, J.T.; Manstead, A.S.R.; Stradling, S.G.; Baxter, J.S.; Campbell, K. 1990. Errors and violations on the road: a real distinction?, Ergonomics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00140139008925335, 33(10-11): 1315-1332.

 

Stephan, K.; Kelly, M.; McClure, R . et al. 2011. Distribution of transport injury and related risk behaviours in a large national cohort of Thai adults, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.12.011, 43(3): 1062-1067.

 

Wick, M.; Müller, E.J.; Ekkernkamp, A.; Muhr, G. 1998. The motorcyclist: Easy rider or easy victim? An analysis of motorcycle accidents in Germany, The American Journal of Emergency Medicine. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0735-6757(98)90113-9, 16(3): 320-323.

 

World Bank. 2009. Philippines Transport for Growth: An Institutional Assessment of Transport Infrastructure, Manila. 130 p.

 

Yannis, G.; Golias, J.; Papadimitriou, E. 2005. Driver age and vehicle engine size effects on fault and severity in young motorcyclists accidents, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2004.10.003, 37(2): 327-333.

 

Wu, Y. 2000. The effectiveness of the ‘ride-bright’ legislation for motorcycles in Singapore, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00078-0, 32(4): 559-563.

 

Yau, K.K.W. 2004. Risk factors affecting the severity of single vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong, Accident Analysis and Prevention. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00012-5, 36(3): 333-340.

 

Yau, K.K.W.; Lo, H.P.; Fung, S.H.H. 2006. Multiplevehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 38(6): 1157-1161.


Quoted IJTTE Works

There is no quoted studies.



Related Keywords

USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION TO IDENTIFY RISK FACTORS CAUSING ROLLOVER COLLISIONS