THE IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A NEW POSTAL SERVICE
6 / 4 / 474-494 Pages
Jelena Milutinović - ICT College of Vocational Studies, Belgrade, Serbia -
This paper presents a modification to the standard Bass Diffusion Model applied to new services along with an analysis of different aspects which influence the parameters essential for defining a product’s life cycle. An analysis of the potential application of the modified model – a model with gradual market potential growth in which the successive introduction of service alters both territorial coverage and new service availability – has been conducted on a sample of two financial services offered by the PE Post of Serbia (a new service – international postal money order, and an existing service – Western Union money order). Due to confidentiality of the data owned by the operator, a quantitative parameter which estimates market potential for the new service is not available. However, a detailed analysis of various influential factors (infrastructure, social environment, migrations, and demographical and psychographic population characteristics) is provided, while the parameters which define the rapidity of the acceptance of the new service and its later growth have been calculated using comparison with the existing service. Various forecast models have been gaining significance concerning business decision making and gaining competitive advantage. For this reason, the authors tried to provide directions for diffusion model implementation in postal traffic and to emphasize its applicability and significance, for both the abovementioned financial services and other types of services offered by postal operators.
Number of downloads: 53
Bass P. I.; Bass F. M. 2001. Diffusion of Technology Generations: A Model of Adoption and Repeat Sales Working Paper, In Proceedings of the Marketing Science Conference, Mainz, Germany. 29 p.
Berthaud, A. 2014. UPU, The impact of access to financial services, including by highlighting the impact on remittances on development: economic empowerment of women and youth, Panel session – Innovative business models and financial services, UNCTAD 2014, 20 p.
Comber, А.; Brunsdon, С.; Hardy, Ј.; Radburn, R.2009. Using a GIS-Based Network Analyses and Optimisation Routines to Evaluate Service Provision: A Case Study of the UK Post Office, Appl. Spatial Analysis and Policy 2(1): 47–64.
Dattée, B.; Weil, H. B. 2007. Dynamics of social factors in technological substitutions, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74(5): 579–607.
Delre, S. A.; Jager, W.; Janssen, M. A. 2007. Diffusion dynamics in small-world networks with heterogeneous consumers, Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory 13(2): 185-202.
Erdős P.; Rényi A. 1959. On random graphs, I. Publicationes Mathematicae (Debrecen), 6: 290-297.
Goldenberg, J.; Oreg, S. 2007. Laggards in Disguise: Resistance to Adopt and the Leapfrogging Effect, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74(8): 1272-1281.
Granovetter, M. 1978. Threshold Models of Collective Behavior, American Journal of Sociology 83(6): 1420-1443.
Guseo, R.; Mortarino, C. 2012. Sequential market entries and competition modelling in multi-innovation diffusions, European Journal of Operational Research 216(3): 658-667.
Guseo, R.; Mortarino, C. 2014. Within-brand and cross-brand word-of-mouth for sequential multi-innovation diffusions, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 25(3): 287-311.
Islam, T.; Meade, N. 1997. The Diffusion of Successive Generations of a Technology - A More General Model, Technological Forecasting and Social Change: 56(1): 49-60.
Kalish, S.; Mahajan, V.; Muller, E. 1995. Waterfall and sprinkler new-product strategies in competitive global markets, International Journal of Research in Marketing, 12(2): 105-119.
Krishnan, T.; Bass, F.; Kumar, V. 2000. Impact of a Late Entrant on the Diffusion of a New Product/Service, Journal of Marketing Research 37(2): 269-278.
Lee, E.; Lee, J. 2000. Haven’t Adopted Electronic Financial Services Yet?, The Acceptance And Diffusion Of Electronic Banking Technologies, Financial Counseling and Planning 2(1): 49-60.
Lilien, G. L.; Yoon, E. 1990. The Timing of Competitive Market Entry: An Exploratory Study of New Industrial Products, Management Science 36(5):568-585.
Lilien, G. L.; Rangaswamy, A.; Bruyn, de B. 2007. The Bass Model: Marketing Engineering, Technical Note of the materials in Chapters 1, 2, and 7 of Principles of Marketing Engineering. Available from internet http://faculty.washington.edu/sundar/NPM/BASS-Forecasting%20Model/Bass%20Model%20Technical%20Note.pdf
Mahajan, V.; Sharma S.; Buzzell R. D. 1993. Assessing the impact of competitive entry on market expansion and incumbent sales, Journal of Marketing 57(3): 39-52.
Mahajan, V.; Muller, E. 1996. Timing, diffusional and substitution of successive generations of technological innovations: The IBM mainframe case, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 51(2): 109-132.
Norton, J. A.; Bass, F. M. 1987. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products, Management Science 33(9): 1069-1086.
Office of Inspector General, USPS, Providing Non ‐ Bank Financial Services for the Underserved, January 27, 2014. Available from internet: https://www.uspsoig.gov/sites/default/files/document-library-files/2015/rarc-wp-14-007_0.pdf
Parker, P.; Gatignon H. 1994. Specifying Competitive Effects in Diffusion Models: An Empirical Analysis, International Journal of Research in Marketing 11(1): 17–39.
Peterson, R.; Mahajan, V. 1978, Multi-Product Growth Models, Research in Marketing 1(20): 201-231.
Radojicic, V.; Bakmaz, B.; Velickovic, S. 2013. Forecasting new telecommunication services, University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Belgrade, 160 p.
Savin, S.; Terwiesch, C. 2005. Optimal product launch times in a duopoly: balancing life-cycle revenues with product cost, Operational Research 53 (1): 26-47.
Speece, M. W.; Maclachlan, D. L. 1995. Application of a multi-generation diffusion model to milk container technology, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 49 (3): 281-295.
Velickovic, S.; Radojicic, V. 2012. A new modification of the Bass model with gradual communicational network infrastructure development, The Thirtieth Symposium On Novel Technologies In Postal And Telecommunication Traffic 2012, Belgrade, 357-366 p.
Watts, D.; Strogatz, S. 1998. Collective dynamics of small-world networks, Nature 393(6684): 440-442.
Quoted IJTTE Works
There is no quoted studies.