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Article

MULTIMODAL CHOICE MODELING USING RANDOM FOREST DECISION TREES

DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2016.6(3).10


6 / 3 / 356-367 Pages

Author(s)

Ch.Ravi Sekhar - Transportation Planning Division, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi 10025, India -

Minal - Transportation Planning Division, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi 10025, India -

Errampalli Madhu - Transportation Planning Division, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi 10025, India -


Abstract

Mode choice analysis forms an integral part of transportation planning process as it gives a complete insight to the mode choice preferences of the commuters and is also used as an instrument for evaluation of introduction of new transport systems. Mode choice analysis involves the procedure to study the factors in decision making process of the commuter while choosing the mode that renders highest utility to them. This study aims at modeling the mode choice behaviour of commuters in Delhi by considering Random Forest (RF) Decision Tree (DT) method. The RF model is one of the most efficient DT methods for solving classification problems. For the purpose of model development, about 5000 stratified household samples were collected in Delhi through household interview survey. A comparative evaluation has been carried out between traditional Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and DT model to demonstrate the suitableness of RF models in mode choice modeling. From the result, it was observed that model developed by Random Forest based DT model is the superior one with higher prediction accuracy (98.96%) than the Logit model prediction accuracy (77.31%).


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Keywords:
mode choice analysis; household survey; MNL model; random forest decision tree;


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