Volume List  / Volume 5 (2)



DOI: 10.7708/ijtte.2015.5(2).01

5 / 2 / 82-92 Pages


Akinyemi Olasunkanmi Oriola - Mechanical Engineering Department, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria -

Adebiyi Kazeem Adekunle - Mechanical Engineering Department, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria -


Aviation crashes all over the world have recently been on the high rise, stemming from negligence, mechanical faults, weather, ground control errors, pilot errors, taxing and maintenance crew errors as probable reasons for such accidents. This study models the probabilistic risk assessment of runway accident hazards in Nigeria aviation sector. Six categories of runway accident hazards with their corresponding basic events were identified and modeled using fault tree analysis method of probabilistic risk assessment. The six categories of runway accident hazards are runway surface conditions, weather conditions, collision risk, aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures and human factors. The Fault Tree developed is a system of OR-gates and the weights for each hazard were derived through a domain/expert opinion. The estimated probability of occurrence of runway accident which is the top event of the Fault Tree model is 0.2624. Fault Tree Analysis; thus, identifies the most likely root causes of runway accident through importance measures. The results of the analysis show close relationship of runway accidents in Nigeria aviation sector with aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures, human factor, weather conditions and collision risk.

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